"It seemed as though history was about to be made on Monday night. NATO
members who had formerly been members of the Warsaw Pact had agreed to transfer about 70 Soviet-built warplanes
to Ukraine. The aircraft, 56 MiG-29s from Poland (28 aircraft),
Slovakia (12), and Bulgaria (16), and 14 Su-25s from Bulgaria, were
supposed to be moved to an airbase in Poland. There they would meet up
with Ukrainian pilots. A week or so of transition training was scheduled
as the NATO versions of the Soviet aircraft have vastly superior
avionics and flight controls. The pilots would then ferry the new
aircraft to airbases in Ukraine.
The deal came unraveled today as the question of logistics raised its
head. The Ukrainian ground crews don’t know how to maintain the NATO
aircraft. The spare parts for avionics and engines are different. The
only viable alternative open was to imitate Soviet pilots flying MiG-15s
from airbases north of the Yalu River to attack UN forces operating in
and over Korea. No one thought that was a top-10 idea.
This brings me to my second point. It is nearly axiomatic that bad
ideas never die; they just get recycled for all eternity. One of those
truly bad ideas is the idea of a “no-fly zone” over Ukraine, presumably
enforced by NATO aircraft. The idea is that such a no-fly zone would
prevent Russian attack and logistics aircraft from operating under the
threat of being shot down. The most famous example of a no-fly zone is the one
no fly zones are those we established over Northern Iraq that lasted
from 1991 until 2003 (Operation PROVIDE COMFORT, which morphed into
Operation NORTHERN WATCH) and Southern Iraq from 1992 to 2003 (Operation
SOUTHERN WATCH).
However, the mission there
was markedly different in it targeted a ragtag and wildly incompetent
Iraqi Air Force and operated in a relatively low-threat environment. A
no-fly zone over Ukraine would bring NATO aircraft into contact with a
well-equipped (though marginally trained) air force in an environment
dominated by state-of-the-art surface-to-air missile systems. Once
announced, there would inevitably be combat between the two sides, SAMs
would be fired at NATO aircraft, and NATO aircraft would engage SAMs.
Some of the SAMs harassing NATO aircraft would be located in Russian
territory, so an additional politico-military problem of dealing with
them would have to be addressed.
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky was pleading with NATO to do exactly that." RedState