Wednesday, August 14, 2024

What's Behind Belarus' Military Buildup Along The Ukrainian Border?

"Belarus announced late last week that it shot down several Ukrainian drones over its airspace, which it later discovered were full of NATO electronics, and subsequently decided to strengthen defenses along its southern border. It’s also considering shutting down the Ukrainian Embassy in Minsk too. In brief, the first crisis de-escalated after Kiev reportedly removed its troops first and then Minsk naively assumed that its
neighbor thus had no aggressive intentions so it followed suit, while the second is the natural culmination of those aforesaid attacks. It should also be said that
Belarus’ decision to de-escalate border tensions with Ukraine inadvertently freed up more of the latter’s forces for invading Russia even though that’s of course not what Lukashenko intended to have happen.
The fog of war makes it difficult to accurately assess the situation in Kursk Region, but most reports indicate that Ukraine’s offensive has halted and that it might be digging in for the long run. This adds context to its drone incursions over Belarus by suggesting that its General Staff could be probing for weaknesses all along the Union State’s border. The swiftness with which Ukraine broke through the Russian border might embolden it to try replicating this against Belarus as a diversionary tactic.
It's premature to jump to conclusions, but that could further stretch Russia’s forces and help advance Ukraine’s goal of coercing its foe to transfer some of them from the Donbass front if it happens, which is widely thought to be the primary objective behind its sneak attack against Kursk Region." ZeroHedge

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