Friday, September 6, 2024

Fools’ Errand

"The center of gravity in war is “the hub of all power and movement, on which everything depends. That is the point against which all [one’s] energies should be directed,” Clausewitz wrote. Political and military leaders should not imprudently disperse their military forces, sending them on fools’ errands beyond the decisive theater of conflict.
Unfortunately for Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelensky and the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces seem either not to have read “On War” or forgotten this key insight.
Ukraine’s Kursk operation has, unfortunately, devolved into a fools’ errand — a glorified light-cavalry raid or medieval chevauchée that has diverted Ukrainian energies away from the center of gravity in the war against Russia. Rather than drawing Russian forces away from more critical battlefronts in Donetsk, the incursion has dispersed Ukrainian forces, allowing the Russian military to focus on the current center of gravity in this conflict and accelerate its push towards the strategically vital city of Pokrovsk.
Initially conceived as a tactical maneuver to draw Russian forces away from more strategically crucial fronts, the Kursk operation now appears to have been a strategic miscalculation that could carry severe consequences for Ukraine’s broader military strategy.
Ukrainian leadership likely hoped that by striking into Russian territory, they could achieve several objectives: drawing Russian forces away from key battlefields in Donetsk; creating a psychological impact by demonstrating Ukraine’s capacity to attack Russian soil; and disrupting Russian supply lines.
These objectives have not been realized. Despite the incursion, Russian forces have not significantly redirected their efforts away from Donetsk. Instead, the Russian advance on Pokrovsk — a city of substantial strategic value — has only accelerated." TheHill

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