"Sympathy for the outnumbered and outgunned defenders of Kyiv has led to
the 
exaggeration of Russian setbacks, misunderstanding of Russian
strategy, and even baseless claims from amateur psychoanalysts that
Putin has lost his mind.
A more sober analysis shows that Russia
may have sought a knockout blow, but always had well-laid plans for
follow-on assaults if its initial moves proved insufficient.
The world has underestimated Putin before and those mistakes have led, in part, to this tragedy in Ukraine.
Just two days into Russia's invasion of
Ukraine, U.S. Department of Defense briefers were quick to claim that
failing to take Kyiv in the opening days of the war amounted to a
serious setback.
DoD briefers implied that Russia's offensive was well behind schedule or had even failed because the capital had not fallen.
But U.S. leaders should have learned to restrain their hopes after their catastrophic withdrawal from Afghanistan.
Allegedly, Putin believed that the
Ukrainian government would collapse once Russian troops crossed the
frontier and pushed to Kyiv, and that the operation has failed because
the Ukrainian government remains in place.
Putin certainly hoped for a swift victory, but he clearly was not relying on his opening salvo as the only plan for success.
Rather, the Russian military was prepared to take the country by force if a swift decapitation strike fell short.
If Russian forces can take Kyiv and push
southward to link up with forces on the Crimean front, thus splitting
Ukraine in two, it would be a major blow to the Zelensky government.
What
matters more than a handful of setbacks is that Russian forces have
pushed 70 miles into contested terrain in less than a week and are on
the outskirts of the capital.
This is not a sign of a disorganized, poorly assembled, and failed offensive.
The southward push from Belarus to Kyiv is supported by another Russian column, launched from the east in the vicinity of Kursk.
If
this column can link up with Russian troops near Kyiv, it will envelop
Ukrainian forces in most of Chernihiv and Sumy provinces, depriving the
Ukrainian military of much needed soldiers and war material needed
elsewhere, and cutting off the government from two northern provinces.
Further
east, Russian forces have launched a broad offensive aimed at Kharkiv,
Ukraine's second largest city, which is now under siege.
In the south, Russian forces, supported by amphibious assaults from the Sea of Azov, have poured into Ukraine from Crimea.
On
this front, Russian forces have branched out along two main axes, one
northwest along the Pivdennyi Buh River, and another northeast along the
coast and inland towards the Donbas region, which Russia declared
independent shortly before the invasion.
If
Russian columns from either southern front can link up with forces
further north, they would cut off many Ukrainian troops from
reinforcement—one of the two columns has already advanced roughly 160
miles.
Russian generals have often
chosen to bypass towns and cities that are putting up stiff opposition
and isolating them to deal with later.
At the moment, the artillery and rocket
attacks there have been limited, perhaps to send a message to the
citizens as a warning of what may come.
Putin appears to want to take Ukraine intact, but will not hesitate to increase the level of brutality if needed.
The systematic nature of the Russian assault is at odds with speculation that Putin has lost control of his senses.
Nobody knows for sure, but Putin's actions appear to be that of a cold and calculating adversary." DM
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