Is a new civil war on the horizon?

"Since the end of 2025, the security situation in South Sudan, the youngest country in Africa, has sharply deteriorated, raising fears of a new civil war. Jonglei State, located near the Ethiopian border, has been particularly hard-hit by violence. The renewed fighting threatens to undermine the 2018 peace agreement between the government and opposition forces.
Intense clashes have erupted between the South Sudan People’s Defense Forces (SSPDF) and the opposition factions of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army-in-Opposition (SPLM/A-IO) across Jonglei State, Upper Nile State, and Unity State, as well as in parts of Equatoria.

In late December 2025 and early January 2026, SPLM/A-IO, alongside allied forces primarily composed of Nuer militias known as the White Army, seized several key cities and government positions in northern Jonglei State, forcing the SSPDF to retreat. Shortly thereafter, the opposition called for a march on Juba. On January 25, the SSPDF announced the launch of Operation Enduring Peace and ordered the evacuation of civilians and UN Mission in South Sudan personnel from Nyirol, Uror, and Akobo counties, designating them as combat zones.
The main clashes erupted on January 26 on the outskirts of the heavily populated city of Yuai in eastern Jonglei State. While the SSPDF managed to capture some villages, the opposition has retained control over the city. By early February, the SSPDF had claimed “victory” and recaptured certain positions; however, the SPLM/A-IO described this as a “tactical withdrawal” to regroup.
Both sides employed heavy weaponry, including tanks, during these confrontations; during the course of combat, huts were burned and weapons seized.
This latest surge of violence comes amid preparations for the country’s first-ever general parliamentary elections, planned for December 2026. It was preceded by a series of contentious decisions by South Sudan President Salva Kiir, including the arrest of South Sudan First Vice President Riek Machar in March 2025 on charges of treason and involvement in killings linked to the takeover of an SSPDF base by the White Army, as well as the dismissal of Machar’s wife, Angelina Teny, from her post as Minister of Interior in early 2026.
Machar’s supporters view these developments as a blatant violation of the 2018 Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS), particularly its provisions regarding power-sharing.
The conflict flared up in the capital, Juba, and rapidly spread to other regions. Soon, it evolved into an ethnic conflict: the Dinka people, loyal to Kiir, clashed with the Nuer people, who supported Machar. Both groups belong to the Nilotic ethnic group and make up the largest segments of South Sudan’s population (the Dinka comprise about 35% and the Nuer around 15% of the country’s population)." RT